Buget cuts and military expenses

Today I'll do some comparison between the proposed GOP 2011 budget cuts, and the military expenditures of the last 10 years. The GOP proposed budget cuts are based on yearly budget, so when they say $30M (millions) cut on the first item on the list, Flood Control and Coastal Emergencies, that is for 1 year.
To put things in perspective, I calculated how long it took our military in Afghanistan and Iraq to spend the same amount of money. $30M is 2 hours of war. In this case, the GOP is basically proposing to cut the Flood Control and Coastal Emergencies funds for one year, in order to pay back just 2 hours of war.
There are a total of 70 items. Here are the one that saddened me the most:

• Economic Development Assistance = 57 minutes of war. Great choice in a time of recession.
  
• National Drug Intelligence Center = 39 minutes of war. We don't have a drug problem in this country ...
  
• Juvenile Justice = 9 minutes of war. Just 9 minutes of war!
  
• NSF = 9 hours. Science has never served this country.
  
• Food Safety and Inspection Services = 4 hours of war. Haw we never had food contaminations in this country.
  
• WIC = 2 days of war. Wicked! If you can't raise a kid on your own, don't have one...
  
• Family planning = 20 hours of war ... and you can't use birth control either! That goes well with the item above!
  
• Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services = 6 hours of war. We REALLY don't have a drug problem in this country.

Anyway, here is the full list, enjoy!

1. Flood Control and Coastal Emergencies: 30 M$ = 2 Hours
2. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy: 899 M$ = 3 Days
3. Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability: 49 M$ = 3 Hours
4. Nuclear Energy: 169 M$ = 10 Hours
5. Fossil Energy Research: 31 M$ = 2 Hours
6. Clean Coal Technology: 18 M$ = 2 Hours
7. Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 15 M$ = 53 Minutes
8. Energy Information Administration: 34 M$ = 3 Hours
9. Office of Science: 1100 M$ = 3 Days
10. Power Marketing Administrations: 52 M$ = 4 Hours
11. Department of Treasury: 268 M$ = 16 Hours
12. Internal Revenue Service: 593 M$ = 2 Days
13. Treasury Forfeiture Fund: 338 M$ = 20 Hours
14. GSA Federal Buildings Fund: 1700 M$ = 5 Days
15. ONDCP: 69 M$ = 5 Hours
16. International Trade Administration: 93 $M = 6 Hours
17. Economic Development Assistance: 16 M$ = 57 Minutes
18. Minority Business Development Agency: 2 M$ = 8 Minutes
19. National Institute of Standards and Technology: 186M$=11Hours
20. NOAA: 336 M$ = 20 Hours
21. National Drug Intelligence Center: 11 M$ = 39 Minutes
22. Law Enforcement Wireless Communications: 52 M$ = 4 Hours
23. US Marshals Service: 10 M$ = 36 Minutes
24. FBI: 74 M$ = 5 Hours
25. State and Local Law Enforcement Assistance: 256 M$ = 16 Hours
26. Juvenile Justice: 2.3 M$ = 9 Minutes
27. COPS: 600 M$ = 2 Days
28. NASA: 379 M$ = 23 Hours
29. NSF: 139 M$ = 9 Hours
30. Legal Services Corporation: 75 M$ = 5 Hours
31. EPA: 1600 M$ = 4 Days
32. Food Safety and Inspection Services: 53 M$ = 4 Hours
33. Farm Service Agency: 201 M$ = 12 Hours
34. Agriculture Research: 246 M$ = 15 Hours
35. Natural Resource Conservation Service: 46 M$ = 3 Hours
36. Rural Development Programs: 237 M$ = 14 Hours
37. WIC: 758 M$ = 2 Days
38. International Food Aid grants: 544 M$ = 2 Days
39. FDA: 220 M$ = 13 Hours
40. Land and Water Conservation Fund: 348 M$ = 21 Hours
41. National Archives and Record Service: 20 M$ = 2 Hours
42. DOE Loan Guarantee Authority: 1400 M$ = 4 Days
43. EPA ENERGY STAR: 7. 4 M$ = 26 Minutes
44. EPA GHG Reporting Registry: 9 M$ = 32 Minutes
45. USGS: 27 M$ = 2 Hours
46. EPA Cap and Trade Technical Assistance: 5 M$ = 18 Minutes
47. EPA State and Local Air Quality Management: 25 M$ = 2 Hours
48. Fish and Wildlife Service: 72 M$ = 5 Hours
49. Smithsonian: 7. 3 M$ = 26 Minutes
50. National Park Service: 51 M$ = 4 Hours
51. Clean Water State Revolving Fund: 700 M$ = 2 Days
52. Drinking Water State Revolving Fund: 250 M$ = 15 Hours
53. EPA Brownfields: 48 M$ = 3 Hours
54. Forest Service: 38 M$ = 3 Hours
55. National Endowment for the Arts: 6 M$ = 22 Minutes
56. National Endowment for the Humanities: 6 M$ = 22 Minutes
57. Job Training Programs: 2000 M$ = 5 Days
58. Community Health Centers: 1300 M$ = 4 Days
59. Maternal and Child Health Block Grants: 210 M$ = 13 Hours
60. Family Planning: 327 M$ = 20 Hours
61. Poison Control Centers: 27 M$ = 2 Hours
62. CDC: 755 M$ = 2 Days
63. NIH: 1000 M$ = 3 Days
64. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services: 96 M$ = 6 Hours
65. LIHEAP Contingency fund: 400 M$ = 24 Hours
66. Community Services Block Grant: 405 M$ = 24 Hours
67. High Speed Rail: 1000 $M = l3 Days
68. FAA Next Gen: 234 M$ = 14 Hours
69. Amtrak: 224 M$ = 14 Hours
70. HUD Community Development Fund: 530 M$ = 2 Days

Estimated solar fraction

Using monthly insolation data, sun angle and collector tilt, it is possible to estimate how much of our home energy needs (based on utility bills) will be provided by the solar system.

The first important data is the solar energy falling on each horizontal square foot, daily average, for each month, in KWh/day/sqft (click on the table or graphic to bring full screen):


Check my earlier post for references on this data.
Sun angle, calculated for the 1rst day of each month, graphical representation, followed by monthly data:



Next we need to calculate the collector sun angle. The ideal collector sun angle is 90°. The graphic shows how the collector sun angle is calculated (example shows June data), and the following table, each monthly value, for a 70° tilt.


Formula is:
Collector Sunangle = 180° - Tilt - Sunangle


The data from the table shows that maximum efficiency (collector sun angle = 90°) is achieve during the winter months, which is the reason of the 70° tilt.

Next, the ratio between horizontal area and collector area is needed to estimate the energy per collector sqft. This ratio is C/A, as represented on the graphic.


Area Ratio = sin(Collector sunangle) / sin(Sunangle)


Here too, the high tilt angle favors the winter months.
From these data, we can calculate the KWh/day per collector sqft:

KWH/day/collector sqft = KWh/day/horizontal sqft * Area ratio.


It is interesting to see how much the variation in monthly insolation is reduced by choosing the right tilt angle (compare the table above to the first table).
Finally, the solar fraction per month, for a 400sqft collector at 48% efficiency (60% from commercial flat plates data, and 80% for the "DIY factor"):


The yearly solar fraction is estimated at 96%.
The same calculation with a 600sqft collector, yields a 100% solar fraction, while a 275sqft yields a 90% solar fraction.
The difference in solar fraction between 350sqft and 400sqft, is only 1%. The December solar fraction goes from 67% (400sqft) to 58% (350sqft).
It seems that the best size is anywhere between 350 and 400sqft.

Final data is the needed collector area per month. This data could be useful if I want to occult part of the collector to avoid overheating. I will try to use a drainback system, but even with drainback, the empty collector exposed to the sun will wear faster than a shaded collector.
Also the 100 or so sqft needed during summer are for hot water needs, so this data is helpful in dimensioning the hot water system alone.

Tilt and Sun Angle

In my previous post, I calculated the solar collector area according to electric usage in KWh/day, and solar insolation is KWh/sqft/day. One factor that I did not include is the collector tilt, and it is a very important factor.

The first thing is to decide for a tilt angle. If we want to maximize energy harvesting in the winter months, then the collector tilt must be the 90° complement of the sun angle at that time of the year, at noon. This online tool is very valuable to calculate sun angle:
[ Sun Angle ]

Here are the values calculated:
November 1st, noon, sun angle = 28°
Dec 1st = 21°
Jan 1st = 20°
Feb 1st = 26°

A tilt of 70° will maximize efficiency in December and January, because its surface will be exactly perpendicular to the sun direction. This is the tilt we will choose.

To calculate how much energy can be harvested, we must convert a 0° tilt area (the base of the KWh/day solar insolation data) to a 70° tilt. The conversion is:
1 / cos(70°) = 1 / 0.35

Now we can calculate the area of a 70° tilted collector that will provide the heat needed in December:
Electric consumption in December = 75KWh/day
Sun insolation in December at 70° tilt = 0.09/0.35 KWh/sqft/day = 0.257 KWh/sqft/day
Efficiency factor = 0.6 * 0.8 ~ 50%
Energy harvested = 0.128 KWh/sqft/day

Solar collector area = (75KWh/day) / (0.128KWh/sqft/day) ~ 600 sqft.

A 400sqft collector would provide 2/3 of our need in December.
Using sun angle and KWh usage for each month of the year, we can estimate how much of the yearly electrical bill will be provided from solar energy. That will be the object of another post.

Energy Usage in 2010

We have been living in our new house for 1 year now. The following graph shows our energy consumption. It is very high, our house is all electric, and not very well insulated.


Out total annual usage was 19,440 KWh, an average of 1620 KWh per month, 55KWh per day.
Considering the 6 cold months, average consumption is 72 KWh/day.

With these numbers, it is now possible to determine the area of solar collectors needed to provide 50% of our energy with solar.
First, the solar insolation is Seattle (in KWh/m2/day): [ Reference ]


The average daily insolation for the 6 cold months, October through March, is:
Winter insolation = 1.8 KWh/m2/day = 0.18 KWh/sqft/day
Solar panel efficiency is about 0.6 for flat plate collectors.
[ Reference ]
I apply another 80% factor to that, due to the imperfections of a home made collector. The total insolation comes out at:
0.18 * 0.6 * 0.8 = 0.086 KWh/sqft/day
The goal is to provide 50% of our needs, which is 72/2 = 36KWh/day.
This equates to 36 / 0.086 = 400 sqft.
This is the same number I got earlier (in the Carbon Masters presentation) using a different method.
Water Heating can be estimated between 1/4 and 1/3 of heating needs, or about 120sqft. This too matched the calculations made during the hot water system design.

Now that the numbers have been cross-checked with two different methods, I can finally proceed with the construction.

Energy Descent / Climate Change Personal Action Plan 2.0

I became aware of the Peak Oil predicament around 2005. After about two years of reading and learning on the issue, with an anxiety level rising, I decided to write an action plan. The amount of changes that must happen in our life was so overwhelming that some kind of plan was necessary.
I wrote my first plan in late 2006, in my earlier website (down now).
In May 2009, I re-wrote it, and added it to this blog. Here is the link:
Action Plan 1.1
We moved to a new house in early 2010. After one year in our new home, it is time to revise the plan again. This is version 2.0.

1. Finances. 6 month cash reserve more necessary that ever.
Generate income from your home, by renting empty rooms for example.
Pay off debts, starting with highest interests, or longest term debts.
Buy second hand, this also reduces both waste, and unnecessary manufacturing and packaging.

2. Food. Start a vegetable garden. Plant fruit trees. Built a greenhouse. It takes a lifetime to learn gardening, start now! Get laying hens. They can eat kitchen scraps, will provide fresh eggs, fertilize your garden, get rid of bugs and provide meat as stew hens at the end of their laying life (~2-3 years). If you have a lot of grass, get a dairy goat.

3. Fresh Water. Collect rainwater and use it for non-critical needs, like toilet flushing, cloth washing.

4. Reduce your waste stream.
Stop city garbage service, and haul your garbage to the dump. Buy 7 garbage cans, that will match their flat fee.
Star a compost system to remove organic material from your waste stream.

5. Energy. Build a $1000 solar water heating system, as described here. If you have the skills, extend the system with radiant heating.
Use a local source of heat. Here in the PNW, that would be a wood stove.

6. Food Storage. Store food that is not easy to grow, such as grains, sugar ...
Build a solar dehydrator, learn how to can.

7. Grey Water. Nothing in Nature is a waste. Grey water from the laundry can be used to irrigate shade trees. Water loving trees such as willows will thrive, and their leaves are good forage for goats.

8. Transportation.
Get a sub-compact stick shift car. They are cheap on the used market, reliable, fuel efficient, and are enough for most people. A 2-liter 4 cylinder manual car can easily haul a 4X8 trailer.
Get a bicycle and train yourself now.

9. Sewage. We may eventually find that using drinkable water to flush the toilet is an obscene waste. Even rainwater may become too valuable for this. Learn how to use a saw-dust toilet, they are cheap and allow to safely dispose of our sewage. If water distribution is interrupted, it won't take long until Cholera sets in, as seen in disaster stricken areas.

10. Skills. Modern convenience has led use to loose valuable skills. Learn skills that allow to provide for your needs without using energy.

Solar Hot Water System Design

The solar hot water system will be the first improvement I will attempt to our current residence. This post presents the sizing of the system.

First parameter to consider in the number of occupants of the dwelling. We are currently 7 persons living in the house. We will soon be 4 only. Average occupancy in the future will likely be between 4 and 7 people. This is a 5 bedroom house so the system will be sized for 6 adults.

Solar Collectors.
Rule of thumb is:

• 20sqft for each of the first two occupants
  
• 12-14sqft for each additional occupant
  
• 80% efficiency of the home made panels
  

[ Reference ]

This gives an area of 110 to 120 sqft for 6 people, and 95 to 102 sqft for 5 people.

We will use solar absorber plates from [ Sunraysolar ], which provides several dimensions:

• 4FT * 8FT = $275. 3 panels provide 96sqft ($825), 4 panels 128sqft ($1100)
  
• 4FT * 10FT = $322. 2 panels provide 80sqft ($644), 3 panels 120sqft ($966)
  

Three 4*8 is just enough for 5 people at a cost of $825, while three 4*10 is enough for 6 people, at $966. Although the 10FT panels are a better choice for area, the 8FT will be easier to build using 4' * 8' OSB boards.
Sunraysolar sells separately the fin tubes. Building the absorber using fin tubes costs about half, but requires soldering the fin tubes to the copper header. This also allows to build the absorber to the exact dimensions allowed to fit the site, so I may go this route.
At this time, I will assume the collector will use three 4X8 FT absorber plates.
The solar absorber plates will give a higher efficiency to the panels. The 80% figure assumes pex tubing in the collector, while I will be using copper pipes with aluminum spreaders. Although the collector is slightly under-sized, the higher efficiency should compensate.

Storage Tank.
There are different rules for tank sizing. I used the following website:
[ Reference ].
A rule of thumb is 10 to 15 gallons per person per day, or about 75 gallons for 6 persons.
Another rule of thumb is 2.5 gallons per sqft of collector area, which is 300 gallons for our 120sqft collector. This represents 4 days of storage for 6 persons, a good feature to have in our cloudy climate.
A 300 gallon tank will approximately be 3.5 ft cube.
Silicon solar (reference for the collector area) gives a rule of thumb that results in a smaller tank size. I don't think there is a drawback in having a bigger tank, except that it will take longer to heat the water after a series of cloudy days.
The tank will be build with 4FT sections of 2"*4". With the added insulation, the capacity should be slightly less than 300 gallons.

Pump.
It will be a drainback system, so there is a head to account for in sizing the pump.
Solar absorber flow rate = 1.3GPM per absorber = 3.9 GPM total ~ 240 GPH ~ 900 LPH
The head depends on the location of the absorber. I have three locations in mind at the moment, on the roof (head ~ 25FT), against the garage wall (head ~ 18FT) or against the electric fence (head ~ 12FT). Eventually, there will be a collector in each of these three locations. The pump for each location will differ, due to the different heads. That means that there will eventually be three pumps. To reduce the number of inlets and outlets, all three pumps will be inline pumps, located outside of the tank.
I will assume at this time that I will chose the lowest head, 12FT. Now I need to find a pump that has 240GPM flow rate and a maximum lift of at least 12FT.

The major components are now defined:

• A 8FT * 12FT solar collector.
  
• A 300 gallons storage tank.
  
• A 240 GPH Pump, 12FT lift min.
  

With those values in hand, I can now make a better decision as to where to locate each element of the system.

Our Energy Allowance

In order to shift our society from fossil fuel to renewable energy, we need to know how much renewable energy is available, how much daily solar allowance can we count on? One study shows that there is more energy reaching the Earth from the Sun in one hour, than the entire world uses in one year. It seems there is plenty.

The following model tries to determine how much solar energy can be harvested on a global scale, it doesn't look at what we actually use today for transportation, food, or other things. This is how much we get, whatever we do with it.
The model uses the area presented by the Earth to the Sun at any time, 24/7. For that, I used the area of the disk presented by the Earth, instead of the surface area of the Earth itself, which, because it is a sphere, would receive variable amounts of energy depending on latitude and time of day. Using the surface area of the Earth would require going through multiple use cases, while using the disk that the Earth presents to the sun at any time, allows to determine the global energy received from the sun, regardless of latitude, day-night, equivalent sun-hours or other fancy formulas. This is what we get on a global scale.
The model doesn't tell how we will harvest that energy. Again, this is another problem. Before we decide how we will harvest it, we need to know how much we get.

So here we go...

Solar irradiance = 1400 W/m2 at the top of the atmosphere. This is the amount of solar power on a one square meter area. The atmosphere will absorb and reflect a part, so it is estimated that the average amount of solar power reaching the Earth surface is ~ 1000 Watt / m2.

[ Solar Irradiance Reference ]

Now we can calculate how much square meters the Earth presents to the sun.
Diameter of Earth = 12,000 km = 12*10^6 meters
Radius = 6*10^6 meters.
Surface presented to the Sun = PI * (6*10^6)^2 = 113*10^12 m2.

The total amount of energy reaching the Earth surface is:

113*10^12 m2 * 1000 Watts/m2 = 113*10^15 Watts.

About 70% of the Earth surface is covered by water, so 30% remains. Of those 30% land area, we can assume that covering 1% of the land area with solar panels would be a maximum practical ratio, so 0.3% of the total energy may be harvested.

113*10^15 * .3% = 34*10^13 Watts
This is the amount of electrical power we receive from the Sun over 1% of the land area.

We are 6 billion people, so we need to share this power.

34*10^13 / 6*10(9) = 56 KWatts per person

Energy is power multiplied by time.

56*10^3 Watts * 24 hours ~ 1.3 MWh / day / person.

This is the solar allowance each of us can use before we start depleting resources.
Now this is before conversion into useful energy. The average conversion efficiency is about 20% for electricity (best case).

[ Photovoltaic Efficiency ]

Converting all of our solar energy allowance to electricity, we would have:
1.3 MWh * 0.2 = 271 KWh / day / person

Now lets see where we are today in the United States, as far as energy usage per capita.

Total energy usage of USA in 2005 = 29*10(15) Wh
US population = 300 Millions = 300*10(6)
Energy usage per capita in 2005 in the US = 100 MWh/year = 280 KWh / day / person.

[ US Energy Usage Reference ]

We can fulfill our electrical needs if we cover 1% of the land surface of the Earth with solar panels.